The Barack Obama administration has estimated for years that Iran
was at most three months away from enriching enough nuclear fuel for an
atomic bomb. But the administration only declassified this estimate at
the beginning of the month, just in time for the White House to make the
case for its Iran deal to Congress and the public.
Speaking to reporters and editors at our Washington bureau on Monday, Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz
acknowledged that
the U.S. has assessed for several years that Iran has been two to three
months away from producing enough fissile material for a nuclear
weapon. When asked how long the administration has held this assessment,
Moniz said: "Oh quite some time." He added: "They are now, they are
right now spinning, I mean enriching with 9,400 centrifuges out of their
roughly 19,000. Plus all the . . . . R&D work. If you put that
together it's very, very little time to go forward. That's the 2-3
months."
Brian Hale, a spokesman for the Office of the Director of National
Intelligence, confirmed to me Monday that the two-to-three-month
estimate for fissile material was declassified on April 1.
Here is the puzzling thing: When Obama began his second term in 2013,
he sang a different tune. He emphasized that Iran was more than a year
away from a nuclear bomb, without mentioning that his intelligence
community believed it was only two to three months away from making
enough fuel for one, long considered the most challenging task in
building a weapon. Today Obama emphasizes that Iran is only two to three
months away from acquiring enough fuel for a bomb, creating a sense of
urgency for his Iran agreement.
Back in 2013, when Congress was weighing new sanctions on Iran and
Obama was pushing for more diplomacy, his interest was in tamping down
that sense of urgency. On the eve of a visit to Israel, Obama
told Israel's
Channel Two, "Right now, we think it would take over a year or so for
Iran to actually develop a nuclear weapon, but obviously we don’t want
to cut it too close."
On Oct. 5 of that year, Obama contrasted the U.S. view of an Iranian
breakout with that of Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who
at the time said Iran was only six months away from nuclear capability.
Obama
told the
Associated Press, "Our assessment continues to be a year or more away.
And in fact, actually, our estimate is probably more conservative than
the estimates of Israeli intelligence services."
Ben Caspit, an Israeli journalist and columnist for Al-Monitor,
reported last year that Israel's breakout estimate was also two to three months away.
A year ago,
after the nuclear talks started, Secretary of
State John Kerry dropped the first hint about the still-classified Iran
breakout estimate. He told a Senate panel, "I think it is fair to say, I
think it is public knowledge today, that we are
operating with a time period for a so-called breakout of about two months."
David Albright, a former weapons inspector and president of the
Institute for Science and International Security, told me administration
officials appeared to be intentionally unspecific in 2013, when the
talking points used the 12-months-plus timeline. "They weren't clear at
all about what this one-year estimate meant, but people like me who said
let's break it down to the constituent pieces in terms of time to build
a bomb were rebuffed," he said. Albright's group released its own
breakout
timetable that
focused solely on the production of highly enriched uranium, not the
weapon itself. It concluded Iran was potentially less than a month away.
When USA Today asked a spokeswoman for the National Security Council
about Albright's estimate, she responded that the intelligence community
maintained a
number of estimates for how long Iran would take to produce enough material for a weapon.
"They have made it very hard for those of us saying, let's just focus
on weapons-grade uranium, there is this shorter period of time and not a
year," Albright told me. "If you just want a nuclear test device to
blow up underground, I don't think you need a year."
This view is supported by a
leaked document from
the International Atomic Energy Agency, first published by the
Associated Press in 2009. Albright's group published excerpts from the
IAEA assessment that concluded Iran "has sufficient information to be
able to design and produce a workable implosion nuclear device based
upon (highly enriched uranium) as the fission fuel."
Kenneth Pollack, a former CIA analyst who is now an Iran expert at
the Brookings Institution, told me that most of the technical estimates
about an Iranian breakout were not nearly as precise as they are
sometimes portrayed in the press. "The idea there is such a thing as a
hard and fast formula for this is nonsense," he said. "All the
physicists come up with different answers depending on what inputs they
use."
In this way, Obama's new, more alarmist figure of two to three
months provides a key selling point for the framework reached this month
in Switzerland. When Obama
announced the preliminary agreement on
April 2, he said one benefit was that if it were finalized, "even if it
violated the deal, for the next decade at least, Iran would be a
minimum of a year away from acquiring enough material for a bomb."
Hence the frustration of Representative Devin Nunes, the Republican
chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. "We've
been researching their claim that a deal would lengthen the breakout
time for Iran from two to three months to a year," he told me of the
administration. "We're just trying to confirm any of their numbers and
we can't confirm or make sense of what they are referencing."
Nunes should hurry. The Iranian nuclear deal is scheduled to breakout in less than three months.[
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