The aftermath of an explosion in Sana, Yemen, on Monday.
Credit
Yahya Arhab/European Pressphoto Agency.
Saudi
Arabia’s military intervention in Yemen’s civil war was always a risky
gamble. Now there’s evidence showing just how damaging four weeks of
airstrikes have been: more than 1,000 civilians killed, more than 4,000
wounded, and 150,000 displaced. Meanwhile, the fighting and a Saudi-led
blockade have deprived Yemenis of food, fuel, water and medicines,
causing what a Red Cross official called a humanitarian catastrophe.
Yemen has long been a weak state, and with each day it draws closer to
collapse.
The
Saudis claim the airstrikes have punished the Houthi rebels, who have
tried to take over Yemen, by wiping out many of their weapons and
military installations around the country. But the rebels, who are
supported by Shiite Iran, are still on the march. The Saudis, who lead a
coalition of Sunni Arab nations, are nowhere near to restoring the
Yemeni president, Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi. Mr. Hadi was ousted by the
Houthis in January and driven into exile in Saudi Arabia.
The
Obama administration has helped the Saudis with intelligence and
tactical advice and by deploying warships off the Yemeni coast. Now it
is wisely urging them to end the bombing. The White House seems to have
realized that the Saudis appear to have no credible strategy for
achieving their political goals, or even managing their intervention. On
Tuesday, they declared a halt to most military operations, only to
resume bombing hours later. More airstrikes followed on Thursday as
warplanes from the coalition struck Houthi targets around the Yemeni
cities of Aden and Ibb.
The
Sunnis constitute a majority in Yemen. Saudi Arabia and other Sunni
countries intervened because they feared that a Houthi takeover would
extend the influence of Iran, which also has footholds in Lebanon, Syria
and Iraq. That fear appears to be exaggerated in Yemen. Nevertheless,
the intervention has threatened to turn what has been a civil war
between competing branches of Islam into a wider regional struggle
involving Iran.
Saudi
Arabia has been further unnerved by the possibility of a nuclear deal
involving the United States, other major powers and Iran. Such a deal,
it fears, would help make Iran the dominant regional power and spur
reconciliation with the United States, thus putting Saudi Arabia’s
security relationship with Washington in jeopardy. This has left
American policy makers with a formidable diplomatic challenge:
reassuring the Sunni nations of continued support while trying to see if
Iran, an adversary since 1979, could be nudged into a more productive
relationship.
The
deployment of the U.S.S. Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier and other
warships to the Arabian Sea this week was intended as proof of that
reassurance. American officials said they were prepared to intercept a
nine-ship Iranian convoy headed for Yemen and believed to be carrying
weapons for the rebels. Fortunately, the Iranian vessels turned around, avoiding a possible confrontation.
The
fighting needs to end, relief supplies need to be delivered quickly and
a political dialogue needs to be restarted. Before the outbreak of the
Houthi offensive, a United Nations-led diplomatic initiative had made
some progress, but the Security Council never gave it enough support and
attention. And now, the United Nations official who led the
negotiations, Jamal Benomar, a Moroccan diplomat, has resigned and returned to New York.
Finding
a political solution will not be easy; it may not even be possible. For
one thing, it will require Saudi Arabia to accept the Houthis, an
indigenous Yemeni group, as part of the governing power structure. But
such a solution is the only hope for bringing some stability to the
country and refocusing international and Yemeni resources on Al Qaeda in
the Arabian Peninsula, the most lethal Al Qaeda affiliate, which is the
real beneficiary of the widening chaos. [source]
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